The passing of Iran’s President Raisi creates turbulence in the political landscape amid public dissatisfaction and regional instability, further complicating the succession process.

 The passing of Iran’s President Raisi creates turbulence in the political landscape amid public dissatisfaction and regional instability, further complicating the succession process.

Qalibaf, a former mayor of Tehran and head of the Air Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has made three unsuccessful attempts at the presidency since 2005, losing to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the first attempt. Qalibaf is seen as a relative moderate, but his chances of winning this time are uncertain.

 Additionally, he is likely to be replaced as speaker of the parliament. Under Khamenei's leadership, Iran's political spectrum has progressively narrowed, leading to uncompetitive upcoming presidential elections and a record low in public morale. To potentially appeal to disillusioned Iranians, the system might introduce reformist figures like Es'haq Jahangiri, former vice president under Hassan Rouhani.

Jahangiri has sought to distance himself from Rouhani, saying that he was stripped of his power during Rouhani’s second term (2017-2021). This could boost Jahangiri’s chance to survive vetting by the Guardian Council. However, Jahangari lacks a strong fan base among ordinary Iranians.

Given the short time available before elections, the council has little time to vet candidates. Therefore, we are likely to see familiar names, who have gone through the vetting process before.

Will Raisi’s death and a new president change the situation dramatically for the Iranian people? The short answer is no. The prevailing hardline doctrine in both domestic and foreign policies is likely to be continued.